I'm sure many of you out there have been reading the numerous articles and "expert" opinions about the New York Mets and their pitching problems. Well, there's a few problems with these articles and opinions. They don't fit with reality, and that's a fact.
The Mets last season won 96 games in the regular season with the starting pitching of Jose Lima, Gonzalez, and Zambrano through 33% of the season. Through 75% of the season, the Mets did not have Pedro Martinez. In fact, one can make the argument that after May, Pedro Martinez never really pitched again.
Now, this perception of the Mets pitching problem is directly linked to Barry Zito going to the Giants. Look, Zito would have been a nice addition, but in no way is that guy worth a 7 year contract for that amount of money. There are numerous examples of how a contract like that is a mistake. We all know this and it seems only the media pundents just want to ignore this fact.
So what do the Mets have for their starting rotation? Well, let's break this down.
1. Tom Glavine: Glavine really anchored and sustained the rotation while Pedro went down. He's a professional that will give you 5 or 6 innings per game and ussually give the Mets a chance to win. Given the fact that Glavine is not a power pitcher, but a finess pitcher, age is a limited factor.
2. Orlando Hernandez: God only knows how old Hernandez really is. Through August and September, Hernandez was the best pitcher the Mets had with a sub 2.50 ERA through that period. Then tragedy struck when Hernanez's calf torn. He missed the entire playoffs due to this. Hernandez can come at you in various angles and speeds. He'll bust you in with a 90 mph fastball then give you a loony toons like curve ball around 50 mph. He's the very example of the art of pitching and his knowledge can't be ignored. Hernandez though can not be considered as a consistent force. When a big game is on the line, more times than not, he'll give the Mets a chance to win. He's also had games where he frankly stunk like only going 2 innings with 6 earned runs against the Blue Jays. Then he'll throw 9 innings, 3 hit, 0 runs and completely confuse you.
3. John Maine: As many of you may remember, I predicted Maine is on the track to be a top teir pitcher in baseball. He started to prove that in the second half and in the playoffs last season. After the All Star break, Maine was 6-2 with a 3.28 ERA and a WHIP of 1.11. He was the secondr best pitcher for the Mets durring that time and remember he was a rookie in the sense that he's never had a consistent chance to start at this level! Maine did have some issues with getting in trouble, but he also learned and frew with each experience. Maine really stepped up in the playoffs where he replaced Hernandez for Game 1 in the NLDS. With little or no preperation, he kept the Dodgers in check long enough to keep the Mets in the game to win it. Then in the NLCS, Maine stepped up again and pitched masterfully in Game 6 after a shakey Game 2 start. Through the playoffs, Maine's record was 1-0 witha 2.63 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP. The WHIP was a little high, but given the atmosphere and situation, one could argue that Maine really grew as a pitcher in this enviroment. With THE JACKET in his ear and Willie Randolph at the helm, I expect Maine to continue to improve and become a true top tier pitcher this year.
4. Oliver Perez: This guy is the very definition of an ignima. Since the Mets got Perez back in late July, he has had some significant ups and downs. In some games, he seemed like the young ace he was projected to be back in 2004 and other times he was a complete reck. Perez can be very hitable, but the guy is also a strike out machine. There are some encouraging signs though. Since Perez came to the Mets, THE JACKET has help with Perez's mechanics and returned his 96+ mph fastball and devistating slider/curve. The result was a 41 SO in 36.1 IP and a 2.41 S/BB ratio. The problem is that he gives up too many hits, especially homeruns. His WHIP with the Mets tells that story with a 1.58 WHIP. I believe this happens because when Perez isn't on his game, he tries to throw harder and his fastball gets straight. Thus, he starts throwing batting practice instead of pitching. THE JACKET will have to continue to educate Perez on "staying within himself". The improvements that the Mets have begun to see (especially in Game 7 of the NLCS) are encouraging. Perez could end up being a decent starting pitcher for the Mets and anything in the 4ER range is a vast advantage compared to the rest of the National League 4th starters.
5. Ahhh, the 5th starter. If you remember last year, the Mets had issues with the search of a 5th starter, but I like the Mets options. Most of them are young in the form of Pelfrey and Humber who have the stuff, but not the experience (ie Innings) or complete development just yet. Here is the question, would Pelfrey or Humber pitching in the bigs as a 5th starter help or hinder their development? The answer to that question could go either way. Then there's also the potential of Aaron Sele, who won 8 games with the Dodgers last year. Sele is a solid option for the Mets for the 5th starter. Again, in order to improve over 96 wins, the 4th and 5th starters just need to be average versus the league. That's certainly possible.
WILDCARD: The wild card in this whole discussion is Pedro Martinez. We all know what Pedro can do when he's healthy. The problem was that he hasn't been healthy since May of last year. Now he had the surgery he needed and is on the road to recovery. Reports in the media indicate the Pedro's flexability has improved significantly and doctors told Pedro to expect his velocity to increase. Let me repeat that, Pedro Martinez was told by the doctors that the surgery will give him more velocity on his pitches. This is a man who can out think and dominate any team with an 85 to 90 mph fastball and a whole bunch of breaking/curve pitches. Now, you give this genous a 92 to 94 mph fastball and you are talking about a dominant pitcher. The Mets COULD get an ace at the trading deadline without making a trade, but the Mets and Pedro need to be smart about this and not rush him on the mound. However, if everything breaks right, the Mets could be in position to have two aces, a good middle rotation pitcher, a strong, young 4th starter, and two or three longer starters for the playoffs.
Bullpen: The Bullpen was the strength of this team last year, and I feel the bullpen will be just as strong next year. The Mets have a plethra of young power pitchers whom by June could shut down any team in the 7th through 9th innings. Wagner is going to be a concern for some people out there, but lets get to this point right now. Wagner is one of the best closers in baseball, PERIOD. There is no disputing that. The problem is that in this town, Rivera is a mythic figure that ends the game in the 8th inning. However, the reality of the closer market is that evern Mariano Rivera isn't the Rivera of old. I don't think anyone will ever match the dominance that guy had in the late 90's and early 2000's. However, Wagner is one of the best and more times than not will shut the door on opposing teams. The reunion of Heilman and Sanchez, the dirty one, should continue to solidify the 7th and 8th innings as well. However, you can bet the minute Heilman has a rough spot some idiot will scream that he should start, an argument that a) makes no logical sense and b) has no statistical support. The question is what to make of the other middle relievers. Can Williams take over for long relief? He showed some ability to pull that off. Then again, no one expected the production that the Mets got last year. Then who will replace Bradford? That's a very good question and one that must be answered. Bradford gave the Mets a special look to their bullpen, but can someone step up to replace him? Well, the Mets will have a group to choose from in Schoeneweis, Burgos, Feliciano, Mota, and Padilla. Burgos and Mota could be a very interesting combination for the Mets if everything works out. The point is that the Mets certainly have a strong bullpen, just not the same bullpen.
To wrap everything up, I think the Mets pitching is a lot stronger than what some want to make the situation out to be. Is the rotation completely solid without questions? No way, but I challenge for anyone to show me a rotation that is in the National League. In fact, I would say the Tigers is the only team with a pitching staff that completely solid from top to bottom. So in short, I rather go with the team the Mets have rather than overpay for Zito or make a stupid trade.
