It's that time of year again where people look back to the year before and look ahead to what could happen in the year to come. I don't like living in the past and there will be pleny of thoughts about the year that was, so lets look at what the Mets could be. Here are my 2007 Mets predictions.
Prediction 1:
Everyone will underestimate the Mets. The major sports institutions will likely try to call the Mets run last year a fluke and predict they'll fall down a notch. You can bet those from Newsday, the Post, and Dailynews saying the Mets didn't spend enough or get the right players.
Prediction 2:
The rise of the young guns. Most likely everyone has forgotten just how good John Maine was. Sure, he has a lot of growing to do still, but remember he was one of the best pitchers in the rotation in the 2nd half. In fact, he helped save the Mets in the playoffs twice! In game one of the NLDS with little time to prepare, he kept the Mets in the game to allow them to win. Then he put on a strong performance in game 6 of the NLCS against the Cardinals ace. If not for the shakey bullpen performance, he may have been the hero from Game 2 as well. Meanwhile, there is a lot of promise in Perez, Pelfrey, and Humber. The fact of the matter is that in baseball you only need to have an error around 4.00 to be good and around 3 to be considered great.
Prediction 3:
Reyes will surpass Wright as best young player on the Mets. Don't get me wrong here, I love Wright. I think he's going to be the best 3rd baseman the Mets have ever had. However, I feel Reyes has the more dynamic abilities. Reyes' speed changes a game either with getting a walk, hitting a gapper, or playing the field. Wright is also a gap hitter, but I don't think he can change a game like Reyes can. This is not a bad thing. Wright is who he is, a 25 HR, 15 steals, .290 to .300 type hitter. That's great! However, I think he's the type of guy who will drive in runs in the middle of the order, while Reyes allows the team to score no matter what the situation is. I also want to make a point that the comparison to Jeter has to stop for both of these players. There will only be on Derik Jeter. There will only be one Willie Mays, Babe Ruth, ect., ect. My point is that you can't compare players like this, in my opinion. They each bring a different dynamic to the game and as such each should be respected on thier own accomplishments. Even if Jeters are mostly false, overrated, and inflated.
Prediction 4:
A hole will need to be filled at 2nd base. I honestly believe there were not many good options for 2nd base for the Mets. I think Soriano is going to go downhill to be frank, especially with his defense. He made a smart move to go into the outfield, because I don't think he'll be able to handle 2nd base over the next few years. Given that, I also don't feel Valentin will have the same success he had last year for about 3 months. Omar will have to address this via the trade market in July unless someone from within the organization can provide an answer. The Mets don't need an allstar at 2nd base, just someone who is a capable bottom of the line up 2nd baseman.
Prediction 5:
Heilman will have to accept he's a solid middle reliever, not a starter. I have railed all year that Heilman is not a starter. He's a two pitch pitcher who can dominate for 2 innings or so. It will be interesting to see how he'll react to the homerun he gave up on game 7. Will this crush him or drive him to dominate. That's going to be an important dynamic.
Prediction 6:
Willie Randolph will miss Bradford. As much as I feel that Omar did the right thing in not giving a middle reliever a 3 year contract, I still feel Bradford will be missed. He brought an interesting look to the bullpen that kept hitter off base, and made the next pitcher's fast ball look about 5 mph faster than reality. I think the bullpen will still be stronger than most teams in the NL, and certainly better than any team in the NL East, but will be slightly weaker than last years. The thing is that you don't know how strong a bullpen is until roughly around late May or June, because relief pitchers tend to go up and down from month to month let alone year to year.
Prediction 7:
The rise of Lastings Milledge. I think Milledge got a really raw deal here. In my opinion, he was rushed in the majors when he wasn't ready baseball and maturity wise. I have no idea what happened in the locker room, but it should have stayed out of the papers. You can't tell me that David Wright, Jose Reyes, or any other rookie never got into a little trouble or accidentally trampled on some toes. He made some rookie mistakes, but he also showed how good he could be. I think this year, Milledge will get his shot to show his ability. I don't think he'll be trade to the A's because the price for pitching is too high right now. Milledge has all the tools to be a very good outfield for the Mets, and will give guys like Alue and Green to be fresh and productive as well.
I'm not going to give predictions on the amount of wins or anything like that right now. There's a lot to consider before I do that. However, I don't think the Mets are as bad off as some would like you to believe. The key to next season is the kids both in the rotation, bullpen, and in the lineup. Honestly, I rather trust and see the kids grow than put everything on the shoulders of the old guys, like the Mets did in 2001.
