The Mets come into the NLCS after a sweep of frankly a better team than the Cardinals of the LA Dodgers. The Dodgers had better starting pitching and a better bullpen. Also they had a much more solid offense, although any line up with Puljos can be dangerous. However, much like in August, I believe the Mets will completely take control of this series and generally have their way with the Cardinals. There are several reasons why the Mets will dominate this series. The first reason is the inability of Carpenter to pitch only twice at most if the series should go 7 games. Their best pitcher won't be able to save them in a game 5 or 6, and even pitch good enough to beat the Mets. Meanwhile, Glavine can easily go twice in a 5 game series and 3 times, albet on short rest the 3rd time, for the Mets. The second reason the Mets will beat the Cardinals is the bullpen. The Mets bullpen this season has a 1.80 ERA, 2.4 K/BB ratio, and 0.80 WHIP. That's as dominant as you can get in a bullpen, plus the Mets have a pitcher that has completely nuetralize Puljos for his carreer in Bradford. The third reason that the Mets will end the Cardinals season will be the ability of this offense. The Cardinals pitchers struggled against the Padres with keeping runners off the bases. However, unlike the Mets, the Padres could not drive them in. The Mets however have shown the ability to drive in runs in various forms via power, speed, and smart base running. The Mets can hit a 3 run homerun and manufactor a run via the speed of Jose Reyes and Chavez. The fourth and final reason for the Mets to win this series is that the defense will be better at every position except 1st base for the Mets. You can't discount Puljos' defense at 1st. Sadly though for the Cardinals, Puljos can't solve the question marks around the rest of the field. One of the most glaring problems is at 3rd where Rolen has a badly injuried shoulder but will still try to play. With this injury, his range and ability to throw across the diamond has been greatly reduced. Further, he can't keep up to a fast ball, which means he can't protect Puljos in the lineup.
Now, I'm going to break down the first four games. The last four games I'll assume will copy the first 3 so I'll leave that break down when we get there.
Game 1: Weaver VS Glavine
Game one will be a huge mismatch in pitching match ups. In the Mets corner is the ace of the staff and future hall of famer. In the Cardinals corner is a huge bust of a once promising prospect who has been so bad that he was replaced by his younger brother on the Angles. Glavine this season faced the Cardinals once with a win, 4.50 ERA, and 1.33 WHIP. Meanwhile, Weaver was smacked around with a 7.20 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. I'm giving the Mets the edge with Game 1.
Game 2: Suppon VS Maine
The key for Maine here is to stay away from Puljos. In the first game against the Cardinals, Maine was beaten by Puljos twice as he accounted for all the 7 runs against him. Maine must take care of the hitters ahead and behind Puljos so that he can simply walk Pujlos or make him a nonfactor. The good news is that Suppan has been even worse at Shea and against the Mets with a 5.40 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. One big help here is that the Mets can shut down the Cardinals with their bullpen, while the Cardinals can not. I'll give game 2 to the Mets mostly on the fact that Willie Randolph has been smart to go to the bullpen with the starters were on the verge of losing it.
Game 3: Carpenter VS Trachsel
As much as game 1 was a mismatch for the Mets favor, this game is a huge mismatch in favor of the Cardinals. The Mets have yet to see Carpenter this year, but rest assure he's as true an ace as there is one. Carpenter lives for the big game and he's even better at his home. Meanwhile, Trachsel has been hot and cold versus the Cardinals. He completely dominated them with 9 IP back in late May while was smacked around in August by the same team. Which Trachsel will show up? I'm not so sure. As such, I have to give game 3 to the Cardinals.
Game 4: Marquis VS Perez
I'm going with Marquis here because he's actually on the roster. That could change, but as of now Marquis is the 4th starter. Much like the other starters in this rotation, the Mets have handled Marquis rather easily. The question here is with Perez. Perez seems to be a bit of a Cardinals killer when he was with the Pirates. Perez completely dominated the Cardinals in 2 of 3 starts, which majority of those games where in St. Louis. Look at these starts:
6.2 4.05 ERA 1.35 WHIP
5.0 9.00 ERA 2.40 WHIP
7.0 2.57 ERA 1.14 WHIP
Two of those 3 starts this year are pretty good, and they were with a bad team in the Pirates. In fact, Perez has pitched better than Trachsel and Maine this year against the Cardinals. I may be wearing my blue and orange glasses here, but I'm giving this game to the Mets. Watch for Perez to dominate in this game with several strike outs and shocking the "experts" with a strong start. Games like this is what makes playoff hero stories.
Wrap Up: I'm going with Mets in 5 games as they'll have Game 5 match the same as Game 1. I think that Beltran will have his fun in St. Louis as he did with the Dodgers, only he'll have 3 games to show just how great he is. I also feel Reyes will have a field day with Yadier Molina on the base paths. I feel now that Reyes has gone through the excitement of his first playoff series, that he'll get hot and punish the Cardinals along with David Wright. Further, I noticed Reyes was taking more pitches and more selective towards the end of the Dodgers short series. In short, this is going to be a fun series. If the series goes longer, I'll update as such.
GO METS! TIME TO TAKE OVER THE TOWN!
