The Mets draw the Dodgers in the first round of the NL playoffs. The Mets this year fair rather well against the Dodgers, going 2-1 in LA and splitting a four game series at home. The Mets were able to beat up on the Dodgers by being patient, using a combination of speed and power for the offense while having the pitchers shut down their 3 through 5.
Edges: The Mets have an edge stats wise in every aspect of the game, although just slightly so. The Mets have scored more runs then the Dodgers and also have shown themselves to be faster with vastly more stolen bases and total bases. However, the Dodgers, when hot, get on base and can score runs (only 15 runs behind the Mets). The biggest edge though is the bullpen. The Mets have the best bullpen in the NL if not all of baseball, while the Dodgers have no real defined closer nor set up men. They are very vulnerable in this area, while none of their starters are none to go deep into games. A perfect example of this is the Dodgers/ Rockies game a few days back in which the bullpen gave up over 8 runs.
Mets Trouble: The only issue the Mets will have against the Dodgers is the left hander Kue who complete shut them down in August. How big a deal is this situation? Well, I'm not sure if the Mets are really in trouble here. This season, when the Mets face a young pitcher (lefty or righty) the second time around, they normally hit the pitcher better. Further, Kou will have to pitch on the road in a pressure patched situation if the Dodgers decide to pitch him second. Statistics alone are not going to tell us how Kuo will react to the insanity of Shea Stadium. The next trouble for the Mets is Steve Trachsel. Sure, he's won a lot of games, but in this case he'll have a ton of time off, which is never good for Steve. As such, the Mets are most volnerable in Game 3 against Maddux on the road.
Major Problem for the Dodgers: The health of Brad Penny. Penny was suppose to be the ace, but now he's hurt with a bad back. So as a result he was asigned to the bullpen. the problem with this is that even the Dodgers don't know who their 4th starter will be. If the Dodgers are down 2-1, will they go to Lowe on three days rest. Lowe on three day rest isn't pretty. In fact, it is down right bad in his career (5.64 ERA, 1.65 WHIP). And even if the Dodgers go with Lowe for game 4 and win, then they'll have to go with Maddux or Kue for Game 5, while the Mets can go with one of the best starters in post season history, El Duque.
Weather: On Wednesday there will be a chance for showers on at Shea. High pressure will dominate NYC from Thursday through Monday. Partly cloudy to variable conditions will be expected in LA on Saturday and Sunday with a slight risk of showers.
Surprises for the Mets: We all know what Reyes can do so he won't be much of a surprise. I'm going to go with John Maine here who is unknown in the national media. Maine is perfect for the Dodgers. Their line up won't be used to his unique high fast ball in the rotation.
Mets win series in four games.
